A Rundown of the Major Polls for Trump V Clinton

This blog will have multiple focuses in the coming months. While I plan to continue talking about concepts and happenings involving Cultural Marxists and what turns them on, I'll be trying to use my political science training for something useful. To that end I'll be doing frequent commentary on the state of the 2016 presidential election between Donald J Trump and Hillary R Clinton. To kick it off, here's a round up of the latest public opinion polls.

First, the Fox News poll: As of today, Trump leads by 3, though that's within the margin of error.





According to Rasmussen, Trump now holds a 42-37 lead over Clinton. At the start of the month Trum was leading with by a paltry 41-39.





Quinnipiac released a poll a week ago showing Clinton and Trump in a 'neck and neck' contest in the three critical swing states of Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania. So goes Ohio, so goes the nation, as the saying goes (giving some credence to the thought that Kasich may be the VP, though I doubt it). No national numbers from Quinnipiac are available yet, but I'll keep an eye out for them.

Historically the polls tighten up after the conventions. Each nominee traditionally gets a bump in support after the conventions. Whether that happens this time or not is up in the air. There are far too many factors to consider, including Trump's willingness to fight a no-holds-barred cage match against Clinton.

I'll finish off for now on this thought: I've seen various numbers showing 44% of Sanders supporters being willing to vote for Trump against Clinton. I'm suspicious of that claim, though I do think maybe up to 25% will do so, which is still significant. Key factors that big named analysts don't seem to be factoring in include the increasing likelihood of a chaotic Democratic National Convention (a la the Nevada Convention) and Sanders continuing to be marginalized by the party establishment. If the DNC continues on the path that it presently walks then the potential for mass defections of Sanders supporters is very real.